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Wednesday, February 7, 2018

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Current State Bitcoin - The crypto space right now 1

This is the most subjective part of this post, so I'll only echo the general sentiment.

People have a clear tendency to temporarily leave cryptos

Now that the crypto market is somewhat legitimized, more and more people want to enter. They are not willing to buy at ATH, so many wait. Others who are already in take profits as they see / see this bear market coming. It's all normal and a factual expectation of any market high, and then a bit quiet before you go much higher than the underlying fundamentals.

The crypto scene is now a bit of good and bad basics (from the technology that is good, but mostly beta / alpha, to the use cases and general legal environment that is uncertain for now and thus more on the bad sides of things.

Basically, whales are waiting for the right time to enter. It's around the $ 8.4k support level, as long as there's no big event to upset it (war, stock market crash, basically any macroeconomic bomb).

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently out of favor

Unlike other cryptos, BTC dominance over the market went from 66% to 33% in a month. It is a great loss of domination that it is very unlikely to recover. Many people already predict that Ethereum (ETH) will soon take over.

People also realized that BTC was no longer viable as an electronic cash system "from peer to peer" (words of Satoshi Nakamoto in the white paper) and that many other cryptos can be valid candidates. The space is in tremendous innovation, it is now a very early initial phase.

Internal about Bitcoin itself, there is also a lot of controversy as a result of fork over fundamental disagreements (namely Bitcoin Cash BHC) and a dubious new direction taken by independent BTC officials (namely Blockstream).

This is the reason for the feud between r / Bitcoin (BTC) and r / btc (BCH). I will not go into this, but let's just say that it's overall, it's a bit of imagination that is not well reflected on any bitcoin fork at the moment and that the appearance is very, very misleading, willing or not different promoters can not be. . Personally I'm flabbergasted on what I discovered, and I'm pretty sure it would be a big bomb if it ever reached the attention of big media (probably not).

In fact, BTC drops quickly from the public, causing the general crypto market as a whole to pause, reflect and probably develop, but it's never as smooth as it seems.I can see that. Even though I'm saying that we'll hit a "bottom" and people will start buying up right after that - this I'm certain of, I'm not certain how much dominance BTC will have in the future and where the market will go beyond this next couple of weeks.

I think most people will tell you that ETH will take the number 1 spot soon, and that's probably some recency bias because BTC has been murdered while ETH stays strong. My thinking here is that is because people are using ETH as a safe-haven and also because ETH is the main instrument for ICOs and some of the smaller ERC20 exchanges - so while peoples folios are bleeding, they're probably thinking "shit, maybe I can still make some gains and get in the green via ICO".

My personal prediction is that the top 3 coins may not even include bitcoin (s) from now on.

Tether, Bitgrail, Bitconnect: time to clean

These are just examples of FUD-inducing events (some will say for good reasons!) This keeps this space through the pain that holds it unstable and uncertain.

It is unclear when the crypto market will be suitable for entering the right mainstream, not even questioning its usage cases. But there are thresholds in security, trust, compliance that we do not yet have to pass with flying colors.

Again, it causes more uncertainty. As it is very difficult to determine the exact reasons for a surge or a decrease in the value of crypto values, market participants will take a position before making their bigger moves. Ergo, wait, see what's up.

South Korea, China and the US must make major legal moves

We still do not know what will be the legal situation for six months. What is certain is that official authorities now have a great glimpse of cryptos, and Asia is by far the largest investor, especially in the mainstream. We are nowhere near the level in the west, although the importance of the US in the world economy strengthens its decisions from a media point of view.

Europe is also moving, but as usual, it's a bit of an old dwarf against Asia and America. his conservative population is unlikely to make large-scale movements (a notable exception is Switzerland for its relative independence from the EU).

It is again more general uncertainty, especially in Korea and China, what investors desire to wait a little before they move. That's why the bear makes his run. Big money, the kind that has a clear interest at a lower price, does nothing to stop (see first point).


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